As California politicians look to 2025, the biggest question is whether Vice President Kamala Harris, a homegrown girl devastated by her presidential election loss just weeks ago, will be running for California governor in 2026. The question is whether or not to run.
Harris has yet to say anything publicly about her thoughts, and those close to her have suggested that running for governor is not immediately on her mind. But if Ms. Harris ultimately runs, which is a long shot, her mainstay would be a major shake-up in an already crowded race for California’s highest office.
Recent polls suggest Harris has a significant advantage, with 46% of likely voters saying they would vote for governor in 2026, according to a study by the Institute of Government at the University of California, Berkeley, co-sponsored by the Times. They said they were somewhat or very likely to support Harris.
“I believe that if Vice President Harris chooses to run, it will almost have a sweeping effect on the Democratic side,” Rep. Katie Porter (D-Irvine) said in a recent panel interview at the University of California, Irvine.
Porter is a Democratic lawmaker who is keeping an eye on the highly anticipated gubernatorial race, but has not yet said whether he plans to run.
Porter’s points were widely echoed in conversations with more than a dozen California political operatives and strategists, several of whom requested anonymity to speak candidly. Most speculated that Harris’ entry would cause further chaos in the negative vote as other candidates in the race scattered and ambitious politicians vie for other opportunities.
“In politics, you always feed the big dog first,” quipped Peter Ragone, a Democratic political consultant.
The current California gubernatorial field has no clear favorite or widely known star, although there are some well-known names in California politics. The majority of California’s 22 million voters are still not paying attention to the race and know little about the candidates.
The list of Democratic candidates includes Los Angeles’ first Latino mayor in more than a century (Antonio Villaraigosa). A state senator (Toni Atkins) who is the first woman and the first LGBTQ to leave. The current Deputy Governor and the first woman to hold that position (Eleni Kounalakis). the state Superintendent of Public Instruction (Tony Thurmond) and former state secretary (Betty Yee). Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom is serving his second term as California governor and is not eligible to run again.
Porter, outgoing Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra and several other Democrats, including state Atty. General Rob Bonta has also publicly toyed with the idea of running.
If Harris decides to run, they may be less likely to enter the fray.
It’s an open question what billionaire shopping mall mogul Rick Caruso, who is also considering a run, will choose, as Caruso may contrast himself with Harris as a more centrist candidate. The real estate developer was a registered Republican until November 2019.
Harris is unlikely to offer a public decision any time soon, leaving plenty of time for political insiders to hypothesize in the coming weeks and months. Harris’ office did not respond to a request for comment.
“I think all the gubernatorial candidates are trying to get some information,” Mike Trujillo, a Los Angeles-based Democratic political consultant and former Villaraigosa staffer, said of Harris’ possible run. .
Trujillo said Harris’ current state is probably similar to that of Hillary Clinton, who went hiking in the Chappaqua Forest after losing to Donald Trump in 2016, or Al, who grew a beard with the scars of his 2000 defeat. I surmised that he resembled Mr. Gore.
“Her first thought is probably, ‘Will I be able to run for president again in four years?’ Not, ‘Will I run for governor in two years?'” said one political operative who has worked with Harris. Harris, who has a home in Brentwood, previously served as a California senator and attorney general.
A successful run for governor in 2026 would almost certainly prevent him from winning the presidential race in 2028. (However, if history is any guide, a failed bid for California governor does not definitively preclude a bid for the Oval Office: two years after losing a white candidate.) Richard Nixon, John F. Kennedy’s Congressman, lost the 1962 gubernatorial election to Pat Brown and became the 37th president in 2016. 1969)
As the chief executive officer of the world’s fifth-largest economy, Harris has more authority to lead policy and bring about change as California governor than she did as vice president, when she was expected to respect President Biden. would be large.
But even in the nation’s most populous state, leading a state can feel like small potatoes after winning just a few votes (and a few dozen electoral votes) away from becoming president. The long race, which lasts until November 2026, will be in stark contrast to the ill-fated 107-day sprint to the White House, especially for a candidate whose 2020 presidential primaries were marred by infighting and allegations of mismanagement. Probably.
“I don’t think Kamala Harris has a deep psychological need to be governor of California or hold any elected office in order to feel like she can contribute to society,” Harris said in the past. said one operative who has worked with him. “I’m sure some of these people think so, but she’s a high-profile enough person that she doesn’t have to worry about balancing it with California’s budget or negotiating with Congressman Jesse Gabriel. We can accomplish great things,” said the Encino Democrat, who serves as Assembly Speaker. Budget Committee.
Technically, Harris has until March 2026 to decide whether to enter the race.
But political strategists who spoke to the Times theorized that she would likely take action by late spring if she chose to do so.
“If she takes office in June, people will be even more irritated,” said a Democratic strategist involved in the gubernatorial race. It would be more “polite” to send a clear signal by February, the strategist continued, adding that such a step would give candidates more time to potentially participate in other races. I explained that.
Mr. Kounalakis is a longtime friend and ally of Ms. Harris, and the vice president also has long-term relationships with several of the other candidates and potential nominees.
California has eight election offices throughout the state, and campaign finance laws allow candidates to mutually raise money for themselves, so if a candidate decides to run for lieutenant governor, for example, If so, funds already raised for the gubernatorial election could easily be diverted.
For the record:
Dec. 10, 2024, 8:48 a.m. A previous version of this article incorrectly referred to Fiona Ma as a former state treasurer. She is the current state treasurer.
A number of candidates are already running for lieutenant governor, including former Stockton Mayor Michael Tubbs, former state Sen. Stephen Bradford, and state Treasurer Fiona Marr.
But the office will likely receive even more attention if Harris runs for governor. Although this is a largely ceremonial position, it has served as a springboard to the governorship.
Still, Republican political strategist Mike Murphy poured cold water on the idea that Harris could automatically glide to the governor’s office even if she were to run.
“It’s like Hollywood. No one knows anything. She’s well-known enough to be reliable in early polls. That’s all we know for sure,” Murphy said. “Does it predict the future? No, there are many drawbacks [to a potential Harris candidacy]?Exactly, that’s right. ”
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