The wind forecast for Southern California’s Santa Ana is worsening, and forecasters are now issuing a fire weather warning starting Monday, saying there is a “risk of large-scale fire spread” if a blaze occurs. I’m predicting it.
Rose Schoenfeld, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Oxnard, said weather conditions had worsened from previous forecasts, with “Santa Ana high winds and extreme fire weather now occurring.” He said he did.
A red flag warning, indicating severe fire weather conditions and rapid fire spread due to new ignitions, may be in effect for large areas of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties starting at 10 a.m. Monday. There is. It continues until Tuesday at 10 p.m.
The Palisades and Eaton fires are under red flag warnings, along with Santa Monica and the San Gabriel Valley. Areas outside the red flag warning area include the Los Angeles Basin, including downtown Los Angeles, Torrance and Long Beach, and coastal San Diego and Orange counties.
A red flag warning, indicating severe fire weather conditions and a high risk of rapid fire spread from new ignitions, could be issued for much of Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Monday.
(National Weather Bureau)
Red flag warnings, which indicate dangerous fire weather and the rapid spread of a fire if it ignites, will be in effect for large areas of Los Angeles, San Diego, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino and Ventura counties starting Monday.
(National Weather Bureau)
This is a traditional Santa Ana wind event with winds blowing from the east to northeast, so Ventura County will be an area of great concern.
Areas at highest risk this week saw sustained winds from the east and northeast reaching 25 to 40 mph, with gusts up to 65 mph, along the coast and in the traditional Santa Ana wind corridor extending to the southwest. It is possible to cross the valley. , en route to the coast from Palmdale to Santa Clarita and Ventura.
Wind speeds of 30 to 45 mph and gusts of 60 to 80 mph are possible in mountainous and hilly areas. Wind gusts can be damaging at around 105 mph.
Areas of greatest concern in Los Angeles County include the western San Fernando Valley, Calabasas, Agoura Hills, the western San Gabriel Mountains and the Grapevine section of Interstate 5.
(National Weather Bureau)
Winds are expected to be strongest Monday night into Tuesday morning.
“Now is the time to take action again,” Schoenfeld said, as people prepare to evacuate, stock up on medication, put fuel in cars, find evacuation routes and register for emergency notifications from local authorities. He warned that such measures should be taken.
This also means securing outdoor items such as patio furniture. Adjust your travel time between Monday night and Tuesday morning. Charging electronic devices, flashlights, and battery packs. Fill up the emergency generator. And they sometimes move cars away from trees that are about to break down, Schoenfeld said.
Experts warn against leaving certain items within 5 feet of your home, including outdoor furniture, umbrellas, trash cans, and recycling bins. It’s also a good idea to remove all dead and live weeds from the area. It’s also a good idea to remove flammable materials such as leaves and conifers from gutters, roofs, decks, porches, and stairs.
“And when the wind blows, stay away from trees and windows. And again, be very careful with anything that could start a fire,” Schoenfeld said. .
(National Weather Bureau)
The weather bureau said the wind gusts were so strong that they could knock over big rigs and motorhomes and cause power outages that could last several days.
Forecasting authorities have not indicated at this time that they are likely to issue a “particularly dangerous situation”, which would be an enhanced red flag warning. For now, it appears that this Santa Ana wind event will not be as extreme as the Jan. 7-8 event, when severe winds were predicted over a much wider area, including the Los Angeles Basin.
“This event has a different focus. More emphasis on Ventura County,” Schoenfeld said, noting that in Los Angeles County, the emphasis will be on the western part of the county and the highest areas.
Still, strong Santa Ana winds are blowing across much of the region, and the combination of unusually dry air and parched vegetation after eight months of little rain means there is a high risk of serious fires. It is expected.
The Bureau of Meteorology says very dry conditions are expected this week, with Tuesday being the driest. Relative humidity could drop to 5% in the western San Fernando Valley, Santa Clarita, Oxnard, Thousand Oaks, and Fillmore.
Schoenfeld said fire weather concerns will continue throughout this week, with stronger Santa Ana winds possible by Thursday. The Bureau of Meteorology could end the red flag warning on Tuesday or extend it until Thursday.
Santa Ana winds are powerful winds that occur when high pressure over Nevada and Utah sends cold air screaming toward low pressure areas along the California coast. Santa Ana’s wind season typically runs from October to March.
As it hits the mountains of Southern California, the air becomes dry, compressed, and heated, drying out plants as it blows from the high deserts to the northeast, across the California mountains, through canyons, and down the slopes.
The forecast is for rain to fall in about a week. But at this point, it doesn’t appear to be the type of soaking needed to end the fire season, Schoenfeld said.
Schoenfeld said the chance of rain is about 20 to 30 percent, with a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms, especially from Jan. 25 to Jan. 27.
“It doesn’t seem like it’s going to be rain that really thoroughly wets a large area of the region,” Schoenfeld said. “This is honestly bad news for the upcoming fire season.”
There are also no strong indications that a river of calm air will head toward Los Angeles. However, the slight chance of thunderstorms raises concerns about the possibility of landslides and debris flows in recently burned areas.
Southern California has experienced an unusual pattern of regular Santa Ana winds and no rain so far this winter. The region is experiencing one of the driest, if not the driest, winter in recorded history.
Downtown Los Angeles has received just 0.16 inches of rain since October 1, the start of the water year. That’s only 3% of downtown’s average of 5.89 inches at this point in the water year. The average annual precipitation in downtown Los Angeles is 14.25 inches.
It is highly unusual for winter rains to start this late, which puts Southern California at high risk for fire weather. January is Santa Ana’s windiest month and can be the strongest of the season.
Alex Tardy, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in San Diego, said the jet stream’s recent path has taken it far away from California, from the Pacific Ocean toward northern British Columbia and Alaska, ruling out the California storm. It is said that there is
This is similar to the weather pattern seen in January 2022, when there was little snow in the Sierra Nevada.
“It’s a complete block. So everything makes me miss California,” Tardy said of the winter storm. “Looks like I can’t catch a break.”
Making matters worse, Tardy said, cold air over Canada is dominating weather patterns, putting California on the dry, windy side of the jet stream rather than on the precipitation-producing side. It is said that there is. That’s setting up an alignment where high pressure builds up over Nevada and Utah, sending winds toward Southern California in search of low pressure off the coast.
Times staff writer Melody Gutierrez contributed to this report.
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