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Azerbaijan observed a nationwide day of mourning Thursday for the victims of the plane crash that killed 38 people and injured all 29 survivors. Speculation has mounted over the cause of the accident, with some experts saying the airliner may have been damaged by a Russian air defense attack.
An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 plane was en route from Azerbaijan’s capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it diverted for unknown reasons and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan. Caspian Sea.
The plane crashed about 3 kilometers (about 2 miles) from Aktau. Mobile phone footage circulating online showed the plane plummeting before crashing to the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed parts of the fuselage torn off the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down in the grass.
In this photo taken from a video released by the Mangistau regional administration, the wreckage of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 lies on the ground near Aktau Airport, Kazakhstan, Wednesday, December 25, 2024. (From Mangistau Regional Administration, Associated Press)
As the official crash investigation begins, theories abound as to the possible cause, with some experts saying the hole seen in the plane’s tail could have been hit by a Russian air defense system that fended off a Ukrainian drone attack. He argued that this indicates the possibility that he received the
Ukrainian drones have previously attacked Grozny, the capital of Russia’s Chechen Republic, and other parts of the country’s North Caucasus. Chechen officials said another drone attack in the region was averted on Wednesday, although federal authorities had not reported it.
On Thursday, the national flag was lowered across Azerbaijan, traffic across the country stopped at noon, signals blared from ships and trains, and a moment of silence was observed across the country.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said at a press conference on Wednesday that it was too early to speculate on the reasons behind the crash, but that weather forced the plane to deviate from its planned course. said.
“According to the information provided to me, the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny due to worsening weather conditions, headed for Aktau airport and crashed on landing,” he said.
Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviasia said preliminary information indicated the pilots diverted to Aktau after a collision with a bird caused an emergency situation on board.
Kazakh officials said there were 42 Azerbaijani nationals, 16 Russian nationals, six Kazakh nationals and three Kyrgyz nationals on board. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry on Thursday airlifted nine Russian survivors to Moscow for treatment.
Mark Gee of OPS Group, which monitors airspace and airport risks around the world, said image analysis of the crashed plane’s debris showed it was almost certainly hit by a surface-to-air missile (SAM). He said there was.
“There’s still a lot to investigate, but broadly speaking we think there’s a 90 to 99 percent chance that it was a SAM attack on an aircraft,” he said.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its customers that “the Azerbaijan flight was likely shot down by Russian military air defense systems.” Osprey provides analysis of aircraft carriers that remain in service with Russia after Western airlines grounded them during the war.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company issued more than 200 alerts regarding drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do things like this,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost in ways that could have been avoided.”
Azerbaijani news website Caliber claimed that the airliner came under fire from Russia’s Pantsir-S air defense system as it approached Grozny. He questioned why Russian authorities did not close the airport despite the apparent drone attack. Chechen Security Council Chairman Khamzat Kadyrov said on Wednesday that air defense forces had shot down a drone that had been attacking the region.
Kaliber also asked why Russian authorities did not allow the plane to make an emergency landing at Grozny or another nearby Russian airport after the crash.
Asked about claims that the plane was fired upon by air defense facilities, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong for investigators to make assumptions before making a decision.”
Kazakhstan’s parliament speaker, Mauren Asinbayev, also called the allegations of air defense fire baseless and “unethical” and warned against jumping to conclusions based on photos of plane debris.
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan similarly declined to comment on the possible cause of the crash, saying it was up to investigators to determine it.
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Jon Gambrell in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, and Aida Sultanova in London contributed to this report.
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