By this time of year, Southern California typically experiences some measurable rainfall. Meanwhile, Santa Ana winds are generally weakening.
However, neither of these will be the case this December.
Precipitation remains well below normal, keeping vegetation dry, and forecasters say strong offshore winds could pick up again in the coming days.
If things don’t change, the recipe is likely to continue increasing the threat of wildfires well into January.
“Depending on how this winter starts and how dry it is, wildfire season could extend into next year,” said Joe Szilard, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Oxnard. If the rain doesn’t fall and the wind blows, “we’ll continue to have a hot fire season,” he said.
Two recent bouts of dangerous Santa Ana winds have played out exactly as forecasters feared, adding fuel to the flames of massive fires across the Southern California coast. Just this week, a fire broke out in high winds near Malibu, destroying at least seven homes and burning more than 4,000 acres. In early November, an even more devastating wildfire broke out across southern Ventura County, fueled by hurricane-force winds, and exploded across nearly 20,000 acres, destroying more than 180 structures and leaving many more on the way. The damage has been done.
Similar conditions are likely to remain a threat across Southland given the latest forecasts and climate trends. That’s even though the threat of fires in Northern California has largely disappeared after a few heavy rainstorms.
“We’re definitely expecting a change to a pattern that actually brings significant rain. We just haven’t seen it yet, just not south of Point Conception,” Szilard said. .
Downtown Los Angeles recorded just 0.14 inches of rainfall from May 6 to Dec. 11, making it the third driest area since 1877, Szilard said. There is a slight chance of rain this week, but not much if any.
“In the L.A. Basin and Southern California region, we’re really waiting for the first big storm of the season to come. Fire conditions don’t really abate until the first big storm arrives,” state climatologist Michael Anderson said. he said. “We don’t really see more than a tenth of an inch falling over the next six days, but that’s not enough.”
But what’s more clear in the forecast is that hot, dry offshore winds will return and sparks could quickly develop into extreme fires, Szilard said. It could be as early as early next week.
“It looks like we’re going to have more Santa Ana winds of varying strength,” Szilard said. “There is a good chance there will be more red flags going forward.”
This season reminded Szilard of the dry fall and early winter of 2017, when the massive Thomas Fire exploded across 281,000 acres in Santa Barbara and Ventura counties, destroying more than 1,000 structures.
“It was the result of a very dry autumn and very strong and persistent dry winds,” Szilard said.
The lingering fire threat is not at all surprising, given that the National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook predicted above-normal fire potential along the Southern California coast this month. The outlook predicts the fire threat will decline to normal levels in January, but that may not actually happen.
“Living fuel moisture remains at extremely low levels across the region,” the outlook said. “Absent a significant precipitation event in December, significant above-average fire potential could continue into January.” [South Coast area]”
Additionally, this winter is still trending towards a La Niña pattern, which, although not officially in place, favors drier conditions in Southern California and is often associated with drought. Anderson said certain conditions common during La Niña conditions, such as prolonged high pressure, are already in place and may be contributing to drier southern regions.
Anderson also said long-term forecasts still show a below-normal rainfall pattern in early January, but a storm could develop in late December.
But depending on the strength and path of the storm, things could be a bit ominous.
“It’s really hard to have fires in December and then heavy rains. That really increases the cascading risk of landslides.” [and] Debris flows are occurring,” Anderson said. It’s like the Montecito mudslide that tore through the Thomas Fire scar and killed 23 people.
Mr Anderson said the rapid shift from fire concerns to water concerns is a growing challenge of climate change and atmospheric warming, with the need for more electricity to power both dry conditions and heavy rain. He said it provides energy. Wildfires in California also add to the warming atmosphere.
“We saw an increase in fire activity in November and December,” said Jesse Torres, a battalion chief with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection. “Climate change is actually increasing our fire activity and fire intensity.”
He said CalFire staffing levels across the state will remain high through December, even though the fire threat has decreased in Northern California. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, coastal Southern California is not necessarily in drought yet, but that could easily change in the coming weeks if dry weather continues, Anderson said.
“Mother Nature really dictates our future and how many fires we have in California,” Torres said. “We always want to be prepared and always have the resources available.”
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