[ad_1]
Egg prices could be nearing record highs, just about two years after their pandemic-era peak. The highly pathogenic bird flu, known as avian influenza, has killed millions of chickens and reduced egg supplies. Consumer demand for eggs is also highest around Thanksgiving and Christmas. The trajectory of the avian influenza epidemic is unknown.
It’s been a sense of déjà vu for grocery shoppers as the price of Grade A eggs has skyrocketed in recent months, even though it’s been just two years since egg prices soared to record highs. There is.
The average retail price of eggs in the U.S. has increased 38% since November 2023, according to Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday. Prices have increased 8% in the last month alone.
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, a large carton of 12 Grade A eggs cost $3.65 in November, up from $2.14 a year earlier.
Economists and market analysts say there are two main reasons for this surge. One reason is the reduced supply of eggs due to avian influenza, and the other is the strong demand for consumption that is unique to the winter holiday season.
Brian Moscogiulli, vice president of egg supplier Eggs Unlimited, said prices are “very likely to reach new record highs.”
Prices for Grade A eggs soared from $1.93 in January 2022 to peak at $4.82 per dozen in January 2023.
Eggs stood out during the pandemic-era period of high inflation, with annual inflation at 60% in calendar year 2022, according to CPI data. Pop star Taylor Swift told comedian Trevor Noah at the February 2023 Grammy Awards that her fans “will help” lower the price of eggs.
How a ‘severe’ bird flu outbreak is affecting egg prices
Currently, as in 2022-2023, highly pathogenic avian influenza (better known as avian influenza) is the major cause.
Avian influenza is a highly contagious and deadly disease among birds, including chickens. Moscogiuri said the United States is in the midst of a “serious epidemic.”
Experts say the disease entered the United States in late 2021 and is lingering. Previously, the last time avian influenza affected egg-laying chickens on commercial farms was in 2015, Moscogiuri said.
Personal Finance Details:
Economy faces ‘several possible storms’ in 2025
Inflation breakdown for November 2024 in one graph
Economists were ‘really wrong’ about recession
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately 33 million commercially harvested eggs will be killed by avian influenza in 2024.
This is “creating a shortage of eggs,” said Ryan Hozinowski, egg analyst at agricultural market research firm Expana.
Roughly half of the commercial egg production in 2024, or about 15 million birds, have died since Oct. 15, according to CDC data. Wholesale egg prices have increased 97% since mid-October, according to Expana.
“If one bird is infected, it’s likely that almost all of the birds will be infected or become infected very quickly,” said Andrew Novakovic, a professor of agricultural economics at the Cornell S.C. Johnson College of Business. said.
Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays increase demand for eggs
Egg supply shortages also come squarely into peak consumer demand season.
“The fourth quarter is typically when demand for eggs is highest, as consumers tend to bake eggs around the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays,” Hozinowski said.
Experts say a combination of increased demand and decreased supply is driving up prices.
“Once we get past this holiday effect, I think we’ll see some things happen.” [price] It’s getting softer,” Novakovic said.
Karastock | Moments | Getty Images
But experts say its trajectory is difficult to predict.
First, the persistence of avian influenza is unknown. The CDC said there have been recent outbreaks in U.S. dairy cows and “several human cases have recently occurred in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.” However, as of Dec. 11, the current public health risk is “low”, the CDC website states.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Friday issued a federal order requiring the U.S. milk supply to be tested for avian influenza in an effort to track and contain the virus.
“Like any infectious disease, it’s a little difficult to predict exactly how the infection will progress,” Novakovic said.
[ad_2]Source link
