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WASHINGTON – The unnatural promise of Donald Trump’s presidency is that he will end the war between Russia and Ukraine with one quick diplomatic masterstroke.
Trump poses a threat. He put pressure on him. Still, bombs continue to decline and casualties continue to pile up.
Now, Trump bets that a face-to-face meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin will lead to an elusive breakthrough among voters regarding his handling of the war, and in some cases will quell concerns.
The summit, held on Friday, takes place on friendly lawns, a red state in Alaska, and is one of the biggest gambits of Trump’s second term. The meeting raises expectations that he will stop the battle. The president is sitting with Putin and facing a trap. Putin is well versed in territorial issues, but enjoys economic and military leverage. Creating durable peace that maintains Ukraine’s independence tests Trump’s pride in trading skills.
“When you attend an unprepared meeting, you can get stuck on Putin,” said Michael McFauul, the Russian ambassador for the Obama administration. “The summit is to achieve the objective of moving forward with the US national interests. They are a way to end it, and Trump sometimes feels that the meeting is an end in itself.”
Within the Trump administration, national security authorities have acknowledged that building a peace agreement is not easy. One of the combatants is not at the table. Ukrainian President Volodymea Zelensky refused to abandon the territory to Russia, which was illegally annexed.
“We’ll know whether there’s a breakthrough in next week or two,” Trump administration officials said. “In the end, Putin and Zelensky must be able to fundamentally agree on something. Third parties can do whatever they want, but these two men must agree on things.”
Sitting in the room with Putin, Trump, his own Canny negotiator, may be invited to support a peace deal that carries Ukraine, foreign policy experts note.
“I’m sure President Trump will say, ‘Yeah, that sounds like a good idea to me,’ in his enthusiasm for looking like a piecemaker,” McFall said. “Putin will say ‘Donetsk [a city in eastern Ukraine] It was always part of Russia. ” And Trump would say, “You’re right about it.”
“Putin is good at those stories,” continued McFarl. “He knows his history and he can be involved in his story. That’s what the president needs to prepare and what his team needs to prepare him.”
Another possibility is that Putin tries to stop the president further. He promises concessions he doesn’t intend to make in the hopes of consolidating his battlefield interests, a former US official said.
Putin was accused of the US embassy in Ukraine during Trump’s first term, William Taylor said: “Then Putin continues to fight and kill the Ukrainians.”
Whatever the outcome, Putin will at least bring about a symbolic victory. He has achieved a big, bright stage when he is an international pariah. Two years ago, the International Criminal Court issued a warrant for President Putin and accused him of war crimes, including acquiring children in Ukrainians. It ensures that there are significantly limited potential locations for two world leaders to meet.
“President Trump – just going to meet with Putin, and the majority of the democratic world is a rigged and imperialist dictator – gives him legitimacy,” McFar said.
The summit will inevitably invite comparisons to those held in Helsinki in 2018.
At a joint press conference with Putin that year, Trump was keen to build personal connections after years of icy bilateral relationships between the United States and Russia. Citing Putin’s denial of interference in the 2016 presidential election, Trump said at the time that he “see no reason for that.” (He later argued that he was wrong and believed in the conclusion of the US intelligence news community that Russian interference had occurred, but added that “there are other people” who interfered in the 2016 election).
This time, Trump was more skilled and panicked at Putin’s acts of war. He suggests that his wife, Melania Trump, influenced Putin’s views, reminded him of the damage Russia had inflicted on Ukraine.
For him, Putin is even less. As of this summer, the number of Russian casualties was expected to reach 1 million. If he chose, Trump could punish Russia for extending the war by slapping secondary sanctions against countries that purchased Russia’s energy.
“Trump is in a stronger position this time than that first meeting,” Taylor said. “If President Trump goes to a meeting with Putin and exercises the political, military and economic leverage he has, there could be a ceasefire.”
Trump heads to the summit in the face of difficulties at home. His administration has struggled to stop his backlash from his base over the Jeffrey Epstein incident. Last week, Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following an employment report showing weak employment growth.
A recent poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst showed Trump’s approval rate was 38%, down 6 percentage points from April.
“He’s pretty close to the theoretical floor for recognition assessments in this prejudiced era,” said poll director Alexander Theodordis.
Among Trump voters, support for handling the Russian-Ukraine war was 64% compared to other issues that approved his performance at a significantly higher margin, Theodridis said. A total of 85% of Trump’s 2024 voters approved his performance on immigration issues. 78% supported work at work. 71% of customs duties.
Statecraft is a proven way for presidents to improve their position at home. Commanders enjoy far more latitudes when it comes to domestic issues to shape events in the field of foreign policy.
The summit said Sen. Chris Koons, a Delaware Democrat who works for the Foreign Relations Committee, “If Trump actually stands up against Putin and demands fair peace in Ukraine, he will change the subject in Trump’s aggressive ways.”
“It’s going to be a positive turnaround,” Koons added. “But if that’s what it is, it would be the worst in both worlds. [the summit] Both are intended to be diverted from domestic focus on things like tariffs and Epstein, and he cannot be strong. ”
Additional incentives for Trump to end the conflict could be the award he appears to be craving. His White House appears to be systematically building a case of him winning the Nobel Peace Prize, bringing attention to various efforts to reduce tensions in global hotspots.
January 31st is the deadline for nominating candidates for the 2026 Peace Prize. The Nobel Selection Committee will announce the winners that October.
On Friday, Trump held a ceremony at the White House to commemorate a US-brokered agreement to end hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Asked by a reporter, leaders from both countries promoted Trump’s candidacy for awards won by three other US presidents. Barack Obama was the most recent winner in 2009.
Yet, the peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan is merely an amuse bouche compared to ending the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, a nuclear-armed force.
“Putin is clearly in a weak position,” Taylor said. “This Ukrainian invasion turned out to be a disaster for him. And Trump has a card this time. He has leverage, experience and confidence. He wants to solve this problem and end the war.
President Donald Trump said he “feels difficult” to deal with Ukraine when trying to end the war, and he said he “doesn’t really well with Russia.”
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