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We’re in the interlude between the Kentucky Derby and Preakness.
Derby’s winner sovereignty doesn’t run in Preakness, which appears in Baltimore.
But House Republicans haven’t skipped to finish the big, beautiful bill. And if this is horse racing, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) would dare to put a bet on House Republicans as the pony players close out things.
“Stop doubting us, we’re going to finish this job,” Johnson said of his plans to cut taxes and cut spending.
Republicans are thwarting Trump spending plans for the 2026 fiscal year: “Stay until we hand it over.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La. is depicted next to the US Capitol. (Getty Images)
House Republicans are not exactly maidens here. But the morning line may suggest House Republicans will lose at this sweepstakes.
Like the Triple Crown, this legislative tournament has three steps. And Republicans are now approaching the final leg of the legislative triple.
It was a photo finish in February when House Republicans adopted little framework for tax cuts and spending cuts. House GOP leadership seemed to make the vote slower scratch – members fled the Capitol and were reminded to the home chamber of commerce in a moment later. Republican leadership forced the plan to support it, and the House passed it.
It was a repeat of April that House Republicans tried to work with the Senate in a version of the blueprint. Republicans put together the framework across the finish line with a nose of 216-214. Flip one vote and that would have produced a tie. The tie vote would have sent a big, beautiful bill to a big, beautiful meadow.
House Republicans were only part of the funding within the Senate framework after Senator John Tune secured some commitments from Senator Rs.D., followed by some commitments to make substantial spending cuts.
But when it comes to actually finishing this version of the bill, House Republicans are in the race.
The debate is furious about what Republicans should do with the bill. The passageway depends on what comes and goes.
“Everyone will have to give it, including providing salt,” RC, referring to the potential deductions of state and local taxes known as salt. “There’s a happy medium that you have to fill to get a cut.”
Moderate Republicans from high tax systems such as New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey will demand deductions to secure votes for the entire plan. Norman pointed out that “individual states have to suffer in pain” before this goes to the finish line.
“We’re going to find a salt equilibrium point that no one is completely pleased with,” Johnson said. “But it solves the equation and we do it.”
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“Along with the salt deduction, we’re in a very good place,” said Rep. Nicole Mariotakis.
President Trump has also claimed lawmakers would push the bill into the bill.
“There is no tax on hints. There is no tax on overtime,” said House Majority Leader Steve Scullyse, R-LA.
But the toughest decisions at all core regarding changes or reductions in the qualification program. Republicans have been caught up in the idea that they could save up to $550 billion from Medicaid waste and fraud for a decade. However, there is evidence that the numbers are significantly lower. Republicans disagree.
“Some of the information we revealed would indicate that (inappropriate payment numbers) are much higher,” Johnson said. “We’re trying to eliminate it, and I think we owe it to taxpayers.”
But the Democrats aren’t buying it.
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y. will speak at a press conference at Capitol, Washington on Thursday, March 6, 2025 (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)
“They are lying to the American people,” House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y.
Democrats argue that Republicans may cook books to cover tax deduction costs and compensate for potential deficit holes.
“They’re going to make up for anything they want,” said Rep. Frank Palone, a ranking Democrat on the Energy and Commerce Committee. “They know they can’t get to these numbers.”
One item expected in the bill: a massive hike of debt caps.
“When is X?” asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent, Sen. Steve Womack, during a hearing to the House Budget Subcommittee.
“X-date” refers to when the federal government has exhausted its ability to cover its obligations.
“As outfielders running flyballs, we are on the warning track. When we are on the warning track, that means the wall isn’t too far away,” replied Bescent.
Or, go up the side rails.
But Bessent added that the government is “not the default.”
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Lawmakers burned cabinet members about trimming the department at this week’s hearing. That was when Veterans Secretary Doug Collins appeared before a Senate committee.
“You’re taking the flesh cleft approach. There’s an old saying. You measure twice. You measure once. You cut without measuring,” Senator Maggie Hassan.
“I haven’t cut anything yet,” Collins replied.
The secretary added that he has a “goal” to restructure his department and cut down a significant number of jobs.
“Want to achieve your goal?” asked Hassan.
“The goal is not true,” Collins replied.
Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also found herself testifying before another Senate committee on her efforts to reduce her division. She admitted that the slimming government is difficult.
“Have we done it completely? No. It’s difficult to do all sorts of scale changes and big efforts to essentially reorganize an entire government agency,” Rollins said.
Democrats have warned that Republicans will lose the day they approve deep cuts.
On Tuesday, May 6, 2025, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent (Tieny L. Cross/Bloomberg via Getty Images) during the House Budget Committee on Financial Services and General Government Hearings in Washington, DC, USA.
“Each Republican who votes for a settlement and a bad budget will remain holding that hot potato,” said Senate minority leader Chuck Schumer.
One senior house conservative told Fox that he thought passing the bill was “easy” compared to the other two rounds. Another conservative, moderate Republican argued that it was difficult. It’s much more difficult.
The best gamblers know it’s best to stop when you’re ahead. House Republicans managed to remove the victory in the first two rounds. One argument is that they have momentum. The sense of horses tells us that the odds are against them.
But this is Capitol Hill. And you never know what will happen to things.
Mike Johnson and the Republicans have no other choice. They promised they would pass the bill. President Trump expects that. There are no other options.
Pacing is everything about horse racing. A good jockey knows how to pull an explosion of energy from a horse at the right minute. When should I give it whip?
We’re looking at you, House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.
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The crowd roars. The hooves are thunder. Mud and dirt are flying away. The steward is watching.
Johnson insists that the house is not out of pace, with the goal of handing over the package by Memorial Day. But Republicans are trying to pass on a very complicated bill in a few ways. It’s like driving on a sloppy track. Republicans quickly run down the home stretch.
The next few weeks will be wild rides.
Chad Pergram is currently a senior council correspondent at Fox News Channel (FNC). He joined the network in September 2007 and is based in Washington, DC.
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